Air Service Development Insights, Data, Analysis & Commentary from a fresh perspective – July 3rd 2024

 

Ailevon Pacific Asia

July 2, 2024

Who’s been to Hawke’s Bay in Aotearoa, New Zealand’s North Island?  It’s a food basket, that captures the essence of the land of the long white cloud (or is that the flat white?).  Cape Kidnappers Golf!  One of the World’s Wine Capitals… what else do you need to know?  What an odyssey of experiences of so many senses last month!  Micheline Hats off to the hosts!

Apart from that…. there has been a lot going on!  Who in this region is falling behind, and why?  It seems in some markets, the recovery just hasn’t quite got there as pent-up demand expectations would expect.  Outbound demand remains robust, but constrained household spending is seeing a switch in spending – although some likely markets that could benefit haven’t capitalised.

Airline capacity chases future demand, and predictions of consumer spending, allocating airline capacity accordingly.  Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting acknowledges consumer confidence is a high pre-curser to future travel spend, and seeing through the oscillating data points to understand the trends is crucial for taking gauge on trends for capacity allocations by airlines.  Keeping your partners up to date with both micro and macro market conditions is crucial to driving improved outcomes for your destination.

This newsletter is published each month, on the first Wednesday of the month.  Please share with your colleagues, and request, by reply – that they be added to this specially curated circulation list.

DATA Insight: WHO’S WINNING DOWNUNDER?

It’s a battle of the islands.  In New Zealand, the South seems to be winning the hearts and minds of travellers… but as AKL is ~70% of all arrivals into the country, is this a switch in preference or a hamstring to growth?

Shannon AIrport

But perhaps that is ok?  If growth is re-directed to the South Island… and AKL’s growth is slowed, regional capacity will ensure the regions, and destinations outside AKL grow?  These issues and similar topics were discussed at this month’s RoundTable.  Especially in the context of sustainability.  How do regional destinations thrive at a time when connectivity is so important, and yet economics rely on volume?

Watch this space, as destinations compete for capacity, and government tax travellers to compensate for demand on local resources… it’s an interesting space right now, how connectivity drives the prosperity and future benefits of a destination, and sometimes a nation. Meanwhile, airlines must produce returns in ever changing competitive markets.

Speaking of which…the chess pieces are being assembled on a global stage.  Last week… did we see one of those moments where we may see the future align?  Is Qatar’s (QR) future interest in Virgin Australia (VA) and a tie up with oneworld a risk that would result in Qantas (QF) leave for SkyTeam?

2024 RoundTable: Hawke’s Bay, Napier – A crowd pleasing success! Ka pai! (good)

So good!  From the traditional Māori welcome (powhiri) to the gala dinner at Craggy Range Winery and the first ever aviation sustainability fireside chat, being hosted in Hawke’s Bay, it was a truly memorable occasion!  Thanks again to our amazing hosts that made it all so possible… the 2025 hosts have a huge task ahead, that will be exciting to see eclipsed!

And the hosts for 2026….

And the hosts for 2027… yes, we have hosts for the next three years signed up.  And welcome any other interest, with this event and the Data Symposium also requiring an annual host for the years ahead.  More details on the 2025 event next month, once formally announced by the host.  But keep the dates 18-21 June free, to be in Newcastle.

Athens International Airport