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Air Service Development Insights, Data, Analysis & Commentary from a fresh perspective

Ailevon Pacific Asia

The team at Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting has been busy this past month, attending Australian Tourism Exchange (ATE) – which was excellent, to connect with various airline representatives in Australia that attended, as well as wholesalers etc.  Time has also been invested in preparing later this month for our signature Masterclass & RoundTable, to be held in Hawke’s Bay 19-21 June.  Watch out for where we’ll reveal later this month the host to the 2025 RoundTable.

Following on from the unfortunate demise of Bonza, we reveal below, with the latest set of data available, how much the airline stimulated new markets – and who else benefited – which is revealing!  With the end of the first half of the year later this month (yes… Christmas is now 203 days away), we’ll start to review market performance for specific regions around the world for the recent past 12-month period.

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DATA Insight: How much did Bonza stimulate markets?  And who else benefited?

Bonza (AB) remains grounded at this point in time, with diminishing hope of ever flying again.  However, their ability to stimulate markets was phenomenal.  Pleasingly, our forecast stimulation of the market stimulation that could be expected for those markets they elected to serve was close in many instances.  For those routes that AB commenced in April 2023, we’re able to determine the impact these services had on these new city pairs that were established, with data released in the last month.  They included: Sunshine Coast (MCY) to Albury (ABX), Coffs Harbour (CFS), Mildura (MQL) and Port Macquarie (PQQ).  In addition, AB commenced MEL Rockhampton (ROK) and Toowoomba (WTB) (although we’d not forecast these routes stimulation rates).  Services from MCY to CFS grew the most – 6,740%(A) – however this was off a low base, and our forecast of 11,262% was what was required to achieve 85% load factors – and low load factors was precisely the reason the service was suspended after only 4 months. (A=adjusted assessment for 4 months operations).

Our forecast stimulation rates for Albury (802%), MQL (3,079%) and PQQ (3,359%) were close to the final assessed outcome of market stimulation as being 952%, 3,246% and 2,668% respectively.  Market stimulation is a crucial input calculation component in route forecasting – using comparable markets in not less than 5 different examples is vital in developing a credible forecast.  Stimulation rates on smaller city pairs is difficult to assess, so these assessed outcomes are useful benchmarks.

The by-product of these new services by Bonza was that Qantas (QF) on all these new markets, benefited from these new services by this competitor, with QF passenger ticket sales increasing between 40% and 792% across all these new city pairs.  This is attributable to QF operating to all these destinations served by AB, and when on occasions return sectors on specific dates weren’t available for passengers with AB, they flew with QF as an alternative to an AB service.

Some other carriers obviously had mixed fortunes, but QF with a larger network, connecting various city pairs – benefited the most.  No one picked that!

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2024 RoundTable: Hawke’s Bay, Napier – 19-21 June (with MasterClass 19 June)

Register Now!  Last Chance! Click Here!

An updated AGENDA is found here! Explore more on Hawke’s Bay’s official tourism website: www.hawkesbaynz.com

REGISTER NOW!JotForm link below.

https://form.jotform.com/matthewfindlay/2024-australasia-roundtable

In a divergence from past practice, as locality does present opportunities, a member of the data team from Home Affairs will speak at the RoundTable!  Being New Zealand based, we couldn’t pass up this opportunity for this Speaker to present!

Attendees will be sent more detail directly to their inbox in the coming days. We have hosts locked in for 2025 & now 2026!  Can you guess where?  Want to host in 2027…? Drop us a note, or ask us for details to showcase your destination to potential network planners, as speakers at your own event.

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