Air Service One – Bitesize Analysis of the Day – 25th November 2025 – UK airport change in traffic mix: 2024 v 2019

Heathrow Airport’s planned expansion has been supported in an announcement from the UK government earlier today (25 November). This reminded me that the UK Civil Aviation Authority recently published its latest passenger survey statistics for 2024 which covered eight UK airports, the five biggest London airports (LHR, LGW, STN, LTN, LCY) as well as Manchester Airport, Birmingham Airport and East Midlands Airport.

Across these eight airports passenger numbers were up 1% versus 2019. However, comparing the latest survey data with the survey data collected from the same eight airports in 2019 shows that there has been a significant change in traffic mix. UK originating leisure traffic has grown by 21% and now accounts for 60% of all traffic at these airports versus 50% in 2019.

Foreign originating leisure traffic is down 11% (share has fallen from 31% to 27%), UK originating business traffic is down 22% (share down from 10% to 8%) and foreign originating business traffic is down 41% (share down from 9% to 5%).

In other words, inbound tourism and business traffic are both still well below pre-pandemic levels. Is more capacity at UK airports going to help fix this or is it just going to give UK leisure passengers even more opportunities to leave the country and take their money with them? Will it be a net gain or a net loss for the UK economy? Not really my area of expertise, but I think it’s a valid question to ask.